Where's the Oil... Really

Widely circulated reports in the media that nearly three quarters of the spilled oil in the Gulf has been collected are now being challenged by researchers from the University of Georgia. A new story, released on Monday, August 17th in the Wall Street Journal claims the reverse is true, that three quarters of the oil is still in the Gulf. Now it's important to know two things about these conflicting estimates. First, the UGA study has not been peer reviewed yet so it should be considered "preliminary". Second, the federal researchers seem to be walking back their estimates somewhat, saying that their findings will be "refined" as more data becomes available.

With these two estimates of the remaining oil being so vastly different, it would be logical to conclude that even the experts don't know what they don't know yet. Without a way to effectively survey every cubic foot of water in the Gulf and every hectare of the Gulf floor, it is impossible to get an accurate accounting of how much is still out there and where it might be hiding. Without some amazingly advanced surveying technology, the experts will have to rely upon the extrapolation of known data points to estimate a number. That's a fine methodology when counting the stars in the universe because science understands much of the behavior of the celestial bodies in the vast void of space. However, no one seems to understand the behavior of the spilled oil any theories come with significant question marks attached.

As more data is gathered things should become clearer. Meanwhile, 450 pounds of newly arrived tar was collected off the beach in Waveland, Mississippi yesterday.

White Shrimp Season Opens
Jane Lubchenco, administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said Monday that extensive testing of the shrimp and other seafood would be ongoing to make sure that current and future catches will be safe to eat. According to an AP story published here, here, here and elsewhere, they asked if tests for the dispersants were being done. The response was no because they have yet to develop a good test for it. That might be the biggest thing preventing a run on shrimp po-boys and plants another large question mark on the dispersants' impacts. Again, more data is required and, again, that will take more time. Meanwhile, the fishermen, seafood distributors, restaurateurs and consuming public will have to wait.

UPDATE: A report from Mother Jones covers a commentary in the Journal of the American Medical Association published August 16, 2010 that describes long term concerns over contaminated fish in the Gulf.  The news is not good.